Why does
Iran want a nuclear weapon? We are focused on shutting down their development
of atomic technology because we feel threatened by Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism,
hatred of Israel, and antipathy for the United States that was born of our
sponsorship of the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.
I’m not in
favor of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. I am sure they will not stop,
framework for an eventual agreement or not, trying to construct nuclear weapons
until they have them. But I am thinking about the issue in a new way.
We think
they want to develop the technology to bomb Israel to eradicate its existence
and to threaten us with terrorist attacks within our borders. But that’s a
self-centered view.
Maybe it’s
not about us.
In the West,
we don’t appreciate the deep fissure that lies between the Sunni and Shi’ite
branches of Islam. The feud between Catholicism and Orthodox Christianity doesn’t
come close. The days of Protestant heretics being burned at the stake are five
centuries past. Religious wars among Christians flared and died out long ago.
Christians of differing sects might think others are going to hell, but the
time is long past when we thought we had a role in sending them there.
Maybe Iran
sees the Sunni/Al Quaida/Islamic State threat, has seen it coming for far
longer than we have, and feels the need to protect itself. That could be a defensive
reason for their wanting—to put it crassly—a bomb.
Ever since
the U.S. detonated two bombs over Japan in 1945, everyone has understood the
devastation of such weapons. There is no need to use them, but peoples have
felt a need to have them, so no one dares to attack them.
Seriously, a
nuclear weapon is an ace in the hole.
Pakistan has
a bomb. But they are not in the confluence of the Middle East. They are a split
part of the Indian subcontinent that the British mistakenly thought would bring
peace to South Asia when they cut their crown jewel colony loose. Pakistan
developed a bomb because India did so first. That is not relevant to this
issue.
Iran may
want a nuclear weapon as a deterrent to Sunni terrorism (and that does not in
any way imply that all Sunnis are terrorists), but having a bomb would also
enhance their prestige as the leader of the Shi’ite branch in the Middle East.
Are you
catching on that the whole issue may rest within a regional struggle for
influence and power that only marginally involves the West and Israel?
Look at the
proxy war in Yemen between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Damn, it reminds one of the
proxy wars that took place between the Soviet Union and the United States in
places like Korea, Vietnam, and Angola.
Iran plays
the long game as does most of the world. Sadly, we do not. 20 years is nothing
to them if the sanctions lift, their economy recovers, and domestic pressures
for change ease. They can wait.
We might be
able to slow it down, but we will not stop any government determined to develop
nuclear weaponry. This is indeed the brave new world we inhabit. Let’s not lose
our perspective while we deal with these emerging threats.
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